It is Time to Learn New Strategies* to Design & Build
* The 590 page 2020 DFM book has 814 topic section
As in all pages on this sit all the leading, most effective principles and methodologies presented presented in the author's 600 page book, which is summarized in 6 sentences on the books page organized in 800 section titles with those that are new or unique printed in italic in both the Table of Contents AND Index.
Strategy should be based on
knowledgeable premises and the right goals
PRODUCT →DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Lack of Strategy
Before discussing how the wrong premise has affected proper strategy development, it might be useful to observe how often poor strategy, or lack of strategy, can result in just calls for action such as: we must do more -- with greater urgency!
What the Wong Premise Can do to Strategy
Decades ago, the premise for product development was that companies had to choose between cost, quality and time-to-market!
Proponents of this premise would quip: "we can only have two, " while cynics said, "maybe that is only one." One leading management "guru" book confidently said that companies had to make the "winner's choice about which one(s) to be good and use as a competitive weapon.
The flip side of such faulty think was to identify which companies were worst at, and then use the only desperate measures they could think of, like substituting cheap parts, low-bidding, and OffshorIng , which is known to waste 2/3 of product development resources!
Then 30 years ago, the first edition of author's DFM book came out with the sub-title: Optimizing Cost, Quality, and Time-to-Market" (see cover at right). And this site and the latest 2014 book shows how to do all that. →
The General Strategy to avoid an either/or Dilemma
STRATEGY TO DESIGN THE BEST EQUIPMENT ELECTRONICS & CONTROLS
This strategy assured the best customer satisfaction at the lowest cost at the highest quality at the fastest time to stable production
For example, a vast array of the following proven off-the-shelf modules are readily available:
Ultra-Low-Cost frames can be built can be built automatically on programmable machine tools working in flexible cells using Cellular/Flexible Manufacturing principle and then be assembled by local labor rigidly and precisely by DFM principles.
Again, a key element to success is to implement this
OPTIMAL STRATEGY FOR ENERGY
Focus of "energy" should be heat, not electricity because:
Efficiency of heat is near 100%, not wasting 2/3 as it is for all electricity production
Consumption is for heat is for 60% of industry and 60% for housing
Storage for heat is proven to store 98% overnight, whereas electricity needs un-scalable batteries, which have much higher priorities elsewhere – so fossil fuels would always be needed for back-up "base-line" power
Availability is not assured for any electricity generation or storage, especially after domestic production has been weakened by subsidized solar and battery imports and subsidized fossil fuels.
Domestic jobs will not be provided for electricity generation when 88% of PV cells and 95% of betters are built offshore!
STRATEGY FOR CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER
The conventional premise of renewable energy is on generating electricity, which waste 3/4 of input energy for solar power and 2/3 waste for fossil fuel plants and wind power . For reference, fossil fuel energy production also wastes two-thirds of consumed energy.
The premise for an Optimal Solar Strategy should be heat (nearly 100% efficient), not electricity (now at only 25% efficiency); see comparisons below.. -- Plus serious implications for scalability & point #5 below.
Current Solar electricity is inherently can not be scaled; Solar heat can!
Electricity from any renewable
power plant can not be stored for
use at night,
Electricity is generated by steam turbines and reducing speed to to make electricity at no more than 25% efficiency. At this efficiency, no form of solar "energy" should ever be use to make heat, which can be generated directly at four times the efficiency of electricity. Polity makers and environmental groups should strongly discourage using electricity to generate heat, when solar alternatives are available, , starting with going back to clothes lines!
Heat. Use virtually all solar energy directly as heat, from smaller fields, to provide:
METRICS: the wrong ones can cause more harm than no invective at all !!!
If "cost" is based predominantly on parts, this will:
The wrong time metric (release to manufacturing) can miss all opportunities to cut in half the time to stable production: see Figures 2.1 and 3.1 in all DFM books and web page: https://www.design4manufacturability.com/half-the-time.htm
Efficiency, in itself, can be a misleading goal, if the input source is abundant and free, like sun-light, especially if the conversion cost is can be very low (not anywhere close to current offerings for reasons delineated at http://www.halfcostproducts.com/half_cost_solar.html )
Unfortunately, a common cause of major cost and scalability problems is specifying performance premiums: So Avoid excessively expensive and hard- to-get components that costs a high premium for the last few percent of efficiency.
Ironically, some solar energy projects arbitrarily choose efficiency as a primary goal, which can ultimately raise costs unnecessarily, especially when all the ensuing scalability costs are factored in
Some "advanced" solar projects not only
(a) accept incredibly expensive technologies just for sun tracking (as summarized o the above link on Half Cost solar), but also:
(b) use this technology "that they already have" to programmably concentrate Focus to optimize the efficiency of complex hydrogen reactors.
Subsequently, the top goals of these kid of projects are;
1) improve efficiency, and
2) reduce cost.
For help with all of the above strategies, see:
Design for Manufacturability: How to
Use Concurrent Engineering to Rapidly Develop Low-Cost,
Or see the web white-paper summary of Concurrent Engineering at https://www.design4manufacturability.com/concurrent-engineering.htm
Or go to the first article listed at the leading DFM site, entitled: "The Most Effective Product Development class" at https://www.design4manufacturability.com/advanced_npd.htm
The Stte of Renewable Energy
Contrary to uninformed assumptions, renewable energy is just not ready. In fact, this industry is so poorly commercialized, that seeing solar equipment being tested in the dessert led to the creation of this article on commercialization.
And, these inadequate designs have inherent shortages of parts and process and supply delays with crippling hidden costs that can never be reduced after design, but conventional design processes take twice as long as it should
Fortunately, all these can be corrected by design for manufacturability, design for quality, design for scalability, and Half Cost Product Development, which can save cost ranging to half to ten times!
MAXIMIZING SOLAR HEAT FOR INDUSTRY AND AGRICULTURE
Concentrated Solar Heat (CSH) needs to be planned and designed to maximize the amount of industrial heat that comes from the Sun. Here is what the strategy that CSH industry needs to pursue:
I. Existing Industries: The U.S. Energy Information Administration report on "Energy use n industry" (updated August 2021) listed yearly energy consumption for the industries tabulated below without the unidentified "Other" categories and the category called "Petroleum and Coal."
The table below cites the yearly consumption of "fuel" (primarily by burning natural gas, all of which could be replace by reenables as recommended on this site) in each category as a fraction of the total of these five categories:
All of these, except Food Processing, are grouped together into clusters,
which would have room for solar heat fields (like heliostat mirror arrays used
in Concentrated Solar Heat fields, as long as they are compact enough to
get their heat into all processing users.
II. Agriculture and Farming would benefit greatly from
concentrated heat generation with over-night storage for local
desalinization, crop drying and pre-processing, "green" fertilizer
production, bio-mass fuel production from agricultural waste, building and
barn heating even all night, and emergency crop heating, without burning fossil
fuels. And, as mentioned below, Highly Concentrated Solar Heat
will be able to generate zero-carbon vehicle fuels for tractors, combines,
and to ship crops and fertilizers.
III, Promising Potential for Solar Heat
IV Products made from CO2
Providing the heat
to make products from carbon dioxide (a searching on
that phrase gets 86,ooo,ooo results!), Not only would
this "capturer" CO2, but it also makes
useful products to reward the effort. Five product
categories listed by GreenBiz are; carbon
nanotubes, carbon fiber; Nanoparticles for plastics,
concrete and coatings; Bioplastics; Methanol; and Chemicals,
bio-composite foamed plastics.
Everything discussed herein
is to be build quickly and at very low cost on
OPTIMIZING RENEWABLE STRATEGY FOR TRANSPORTATION
Of all sources of green-house gases (GHG), transportation has worst combination of solution importance and urgency combined with solution difficulty, cost, impact on our lives, jobs, impace on and the economy
Here are the factors that affect this ratio from worst to best:
STRATEGIC ANALYSES AND
STRATEGIES TO PURSUE
Emissions. (Point #1): projects that emissions from conventional sources continue to resist attempts to reduce emissions at the source (or capture, transport, and store the pollution.
Strategies to pursue: To achieve the goal of "no net emissions from vehicles plus their sources," we will need to eliminate the all emissions that supply these low/no emission vehicles or else their real benefits will be cancelled out.
Fuel Sources (Point #2): The low efficiency of fossil fuels makes them three times worse than perceived with respect of raw material mining and extraction, and their environmental impacts and costs .
Strategies to pursue: This needs
to be taken into account for any transportation strategy that depends on this electricity
which is inherently wasteful of source energy.
Charging / Refueling: (Point #3): n addition to the fuel distribution conundrums mentioned in Point #3, lack of system scalability will lead to shortages, which are becoming the industry's biggest challenges when they are being asked to become carbon-free.
Strategies to pursue now:
Scalability needs to be understood and products and their production
systems need to be designed for that, as taught in Section 4.8 (IN
THE 2020 DFM book) and at Scalability
to greatly increase production volumes quickly
Strategies to pursue: The overall system strategy needs to be prioritized to allocations panels which are inherently not scalable, (as shown in Section 22.214.171.124 in the 2020 DFM book). Recent news cites supply problems brewing for high-performance electric motor that are designed around rare components (actually made from "rare Earth" elements) which are warned against in Section 3.9.7. Here the advise is to design in adequate space for readily available magnets.
New mobile fuels (also in point #4) may be produced in large, remote factories (like current refineries.
Strategies to pursue: Renewable energy could
leap ahead on energy distribution (point #4), by (a) developing more compact
energy source utilizing the unique Precise
Assembly design principles, that could be more plentiful and be located closer to
users, and, (b) developing fuels that can be trucked to existing or new
Energy storage (Point #5): Un-synergistic thinking allows using valuable (and some predict scarce) batteries to correct one of the biggest shortcomings of both PV solar panels and wind power: storing energy when the sun doesn't shine of when the wind doesn't blow.
Strategies to pursue: Systems
thinking would advise that battery usage should now be prioritized for (1)
storing roof-top PV electricity storage and (2) the electric vehicles themselves, as
discussed in Section 126.96.36.199 in the 2020 DFM book. A
related prioritization would also avoid using batteries for wind power,
which may ironically might be thought of as a way to power electric
vehicles. Instead, systems thinkers should insist that wind energy
also be stored without needing batters, for instance, pumping water up
high enough to generate electricity through the same generator, r, when s not
blowing). A clever, integrated solution uses the actual tower
structure to hold the pumped water.
Conversion Costs : Ignoring these or other adaptation strategies may incur overwhelming costs to replace all vehicles when auto factories can’t even find enough parts to keep their plants open. Current decision-nJUBF needS to immediately start prioritizing the allocation of PV solar panels which are inherently not scalable, (as shown in Section 188.8.131.52 in the 2020 DFM book). Rather than accept the status quo or an obvious but sub-optmal "solution," to the first half of these points, consider all of these "Strategies to pursue.."
Conversion time (Point #7): The more urgent is the need for change, the faster its completion is needed from the first half of Point #7 and all these other points above.
Strategies to pursue. Complete meaningful
change quickly and getting the fastest results will depend on: optimal
strategies (summarized on this page); Concept Breakthroughs (Section 3.8.3 on Designing
Half-Cost Products in the DFM book) like adapt existing internal combustion
Solution Viability (Point #8), consider the slogan on the back cover of the
new 600page DFM book: "Achieve any cost goals in half the time and
achieve stable production with quality designed in
right-the-first-time:" (DFM book slogan). (jFor
more help, see indented paragraph below with all the links and
Everything discussed herein is to be build
quickly and at very low cost on
A solar furnace concentrates enough sun rays reach temperatures high enough to produce solar hydrogen, sometimes called green hydrogen.
Solar furnace laboratories have generated hydrogen and oxygen, sometimes in separate chambers which could be generated on a continuous basis.
The previous section on "Optimizing Renewable Energy Strategy for Transportation" showed mow much low-cost, scalable supplies of clean hydrogen could help all the strategies presented for transportation.
Solar furnaces have been making hydrogen in many ways from Highly Concentrated Solar Heat (HCSH)
Also, hundreds of R&D projects have been working for decades to perfect a category called Direct solar water-splitting. The simplest and most commercializable approaches require (1) very temperatures and (2) very low cost. The highest temperatures come from very high concentration of sun rays , that can be achieved using Precision Assemblies and accurate tolerances for large structures, which us summarized in the next paragraph. Very low-cost can be achieved with the just-published "Half Cost Product Development" (Section 3.8 in the 2020 DFM book) which cam save nine cost categories half the cost to ten time less!
The foundation for what is needed is Design for Manufacturability (see dozens of DFM articles); DFM guidelines including : Availability designed in (see Sections 3.8.3, 3.9.7 , & 4.6.3 in 2020 DFM book); Tolerance Strategies (in 17 sections; 9 guidelines, and two figure in the DFM book; How to avoid cumulative exponential degradation of quality and performance, e.g. for hundreds of thousands of heliostats mirror trackers, which now could not get enough chips for that (see Figure 10.2 and Section 3.3.11 on Concept Simplification in the DFM book); and Half Cost Product Development (Section 3.8) saving cost at the high end of its range: 10 times less costs or better,
A manufacturable solar furnace that can concentrate sun rays 4,000 to 10,000 times will need How to Design Precision Assemblies, which has been provided for all the clients with blue hyper-links on the author's client page.
All research on hydrogen
generation reactors may needs to be optimized before it is too
Then, products need to be designed
for manufacturability and scalability in half the time at half the
The following section will present how solar hydrogen can help other industries.
Clean Aviation Fuel
Hydrogen can be used as a clean aviation fuel ,once it’s production is no longer fueled by fossil fuels. This will be possible when hydrogen can be made by Highly Concentrated Solar Heat, which also satisfy the airline industry’s intense desires to reduce fuel costs.
Hydrogen can replace kerosene jet fuel and replace the fossil fuels that run internal combustion engines. And, as pointed out ground vehicles, the engines will not have to be replaced with electric motors and "the most power-dense battery pack ever assembled for aircraft," whose mining and production is not scalable and may not result in a net plus for the planet.
Thus, hydrogen will be able to eliminate carbon dioxide in aviation and greatly reduce fuel costs
INDUSTRIAL USES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE
As pointed out earlier, 60% of industrial and residential/office energy demand is heat.
In order to supply renewable heat to where it is needed, the sources will need to close by. Fortunately, highly concentrated reflector systems can be located next to or on top of factories or office, apartment buildings, and even fueling stations.
Fortunately, very high solar concentration ratios, can be compact enough that (a) as many as are needed can be located next to the proverbial "blast furnace" application and (b) these can be designed to be light enough be supported by roofs.
Further, the much higher "sunlight concentration ratios" means that in northern latitudes or on cloudy days, using "filtered sunlight" will get though to a wide range of most solar heat users.
The logic of the last two paragraphs can be combined enable solar energy to heat and power ocean-going ships with the techniques discussed in the Transportation setion above (with readily available ship-mounted trackers)
CONVERTING HEAT DIRECTLY TO ELECTRICITY
In addition to providing high-temperature heat for industry and clean fuel generation, high-temperature solar heat sources can also generate electricity directly from heat with no moving parts at higher efficiencies than the steam turbines currently used by Concentrated Solar Power (power towers) .
Next generation thermionic generators will convert heat to electricity at 40% efficiency which is twice as efficient as all solar power today. This research needs to be supported with manufacturable research and commercialization (see http://halfcostproducts.com/commercialization.htm .
This greatly reduce the cost of Concentrated Solar Power (SCP) by eliminating the cost of steam turbine power plat and the limited efficiency of all such conversion cycles. CSP already cost trice as much as it should because it depends on hundreds of thousands of dual servo-controlled tracking drives that could have been replaces by mechanical coupling as proposed decades ago, at http://halfcostproducts.com/half_cost_solar.html
One way of another, CSP must be commercialized because offers the only scalable way to store solar energy (molten sat).; seee point 5 above and its following "Strategies to pursue" discussion on Energy Storage.
And, carrying forth commercialized versions of the best of solar power will provide effective heat storage in proven molten salt tanks, this time a lot of heat at very high temperatures, which will ensure even more potential electricity production if that research is supported to start with manufacturable research and commercialization (see http://halfcostproducts.com/commercialization.htm
Unlike the case of steam turbines, (with no value of heat over the boiling point of the working fluid), temperature actually does matter for thermionics since its premise is that "the larger the temperature difference, the more electric current is produced and the more power is generated."
And in colder regions, the colder ambient temperatures would extend the lower end of the temperate differential that determines thermionic performance. That may compensate for a lower high-end temperature in higher latitudes or more prevalent clouds.
All research on
"heat-to-electricity" needs to be optimized before it is too
Then, products need to be designed
for manufacturability and scalability in half the time at half the
Everything discussed herein
is to be build quickly and at very low cost on
CONCLUSIONS : Strategy for:
Highly Concentrated Solar Heat (HCSH)
The end of the advanced strategy page on this site shows how to commercialize the "solar furnace," which concentrates sun rays several thousands times to produce "blast furnace" temperatures. High concentrations can be achieved by design with the overall strategies presented in the page How to Design Precise Assemblies and optimal tolerance Strategies (in 17 sections; 9 guidelines, and two figure in the 2020 DFM book Such a low-cost design would be scalable and would be able to:
(a) provide 60% of all of the energy demands for industry, which is in the form of heat
(b) evolve to use higher temperatures (not valued in steam based generators) to convert abundant solar heat directly to electricity at twice the efficiency of all current solar power (PV or CSP) with no moving parts and
(c) make solar hydrogen as the ultimate clean transportation fuel, Which can be "burned" in existing vehicle engines (with only water vapor as the "exhaust") and be able to switch over to the more expensive gas in the same old gas tank if the H2 tank might be close to running low-- until the quick-filling fluid fuel can be trucked in (pr generated locally) and a new "gas" can be added to our existing network of gas stations.
Two major new articles on scalability at:
Scalability for Major Programs and
Scalable Innovation as Fast as Needed
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